Posted on August 15, 2022, by Arianna Ugliano and Britta Hahn

Most nations recognize that a sharp reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is vital to prevent catastrophic climate change. As part of the Paris Agreement, these nations have provided a “Nationally Determined Contribution” (NDC), that is, a commitment to reducing their country’s carbon footprint by a specified amount over a specified number of years. Rwanda has set ambitious NDC targets, and the Center for Climate Strategies (CCS) is supporting its effort under the USAID funded Power Africa East Africa Energy Program (EAEP). Rwanda’s NDC aims at reducing GHG emissions by 38% by 2030 relative to business as usual, and net zero emissions by 2050, with financial assistance from economically advanced nations.

But making these targets a reality depends on more than financial help. Interventions to reduce carbon emissions must be coordinated with other national priorities, such as economic development and growing energy needs, and require integrating targets with existing resources and development potential, all while maximizing “bang for the buck.” Data availability is key to this process, but just as crucial is the ability to integrate data. For example, the level of carbon reduction that could be achieved by developing 50 MW of solar capacity would depend on the energy source it would replace, on whether it would prevent the development of fossil fuel-based energy, and on which other development projects this project competes with over funds.

The “Race to Net Zero” depends on this integrated approach, and CCS uses policy planning methodologies and modeling tools to support the leap from national targets to informed implementation strategies. Leveraging the electricity generation resource assessment conducted for Rwanda to support the updates to its Least-Cost Power Development Plan, CCS will continue to work under EAEP to develop a set of policy-specific scenarios for Rwanda to achieve its net-zero target by 2050.

Through this integrated approach, CCS will support policymakers and analysts from the Rwanda Energy Group (REG) and the Ministry of Infrastructure (MININFRA) in identifying decarbonization strategies across energy and non-energy sectors through an informed decision-making process. Sound modelling tools will be used, and these include CCS’s GHG Strategy Tool and LEAP (for Low Emissions Analysis Platform), both of which process historical and projected energy and resource demand, existing and potential new supply sources, emission factors, as well as cost projections to create different hypothetical development scenarios. These scenarios differ in areas of strength and compromise, and they can be compared and weighted against each other.

While the focus is on getting the most benefit with available funds, national priorities are also qualitative in nature. Thus, these tools are not designed to create “the” optimal solution but to provide different scenario options for review and iteration. How Rwanda will prioritize its resources, including renewable energy resources such as hydropower, wind, solar, geothermal, methane, and waste to energy, will ultimately be decided by its leadership, but the results of these analytical efforts provide vital information to help this decision process.

The next step for CCS is to train REG and MININFRA staff members to use LEAP independently and support self-determined planning and assessment. In this manner, future assessments taking into account changing circumstances can be carried out as needed when needed. CCS will provide a final assessment of Net Zero scenarios for REG in the coming months, leaving the Rwandan government with an initial set of scenarios to inform novel low-emission energy development initiatives.